Ron Paul ‘08 Trailing Howard Dean ‘04: Analysis
Most comparisons are made between Ron Paul and Howard Dean because they are both anecdotally “internet candidates,” and many are wondering whether this is the early stage of a Howard Dean-like explosion. The two are eerily similar: both began in obscurity, both are doctors, both are or were wildly popular on the internet, and both surged in donations as a result. However, a historical comparison of their fund raising and polling data show two very different campaigns.
The following graph shows funding and polling leading up to the primary deadline (Year 0), and where Paul sits in comparison.*
Figure 1: Howard Dean’s Campaign from Inception to Conclusion compared against Ron Paul. *Note that, for this comparison, New Hampshire polling data is used despite it not being a “national poll” nor the first to have its primary. This choice intends to adopt Dean’s concentration on New Hampshire as a political strategy and does no disservice to Ron Paul, whose poll numbers have yet to distinguish themselves amongst Iowa, New Hampshire, or nationwide polls.
Consider the milestone differences between present-day Paul and the Howard Dean campaign circa 2004.
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April 17, 2003 vs. April 15, 2007 - First quarters of 03 and 07 are in. Dean receives $2.6 millon for the quarter, coming in fifth place among Democrats. Paul receives $638,389, in sixth place among Republicans. Dean facing a field of 7, Paul facing a field of 10, their ranks among candidates at this point are roughly identical. Even so, Dean is already raising four times that of Ron Paul and even polling 15% in New Hampshire compared to Ron Paul’s 1%.
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June 17, 2003 vs June 17, 2007 - Howard Dean airs the first television advertising of the 2004 campaign, costing more than $300,000. Ron Paul continues to rely on free media, does not spend money on advertising.
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July 3, 2003 vs. July 15, 2007 - Howard Dean takes fund raising lead with $7.6 m in contributions. Ron Paul presumably comes in fourth with $2.4 m, but putting him in third place in the “cash on hand” category ahead of McCain. July quarterly earnings have yet to be provided by the FEC’s website, but the numbers can be estimated from Ron Paul’s interview with George Stephanopoulos. Dean is polling at 19% in New Hampshire to Ron Paul’s 3%.
Ron Paul appears to be at least a whole financial quarter behind Dean, both in contributions and strategy. Ron Paul’s move to spend money on advertising is just now getting started.
This does not suggest that Ron Paul will be incapable of having a Dean-like surge because he is four months behind. Having only one prior “internet candidate” for comparison is an inadequate basis to draw this conclusion, and there are some positive differences in the Paul campaign.
Paul has been able to generate $2.4 million off of 1% nationwide popularity - it took Dean 15% to raise those kinds of numbers. If this enthusiasm is infectious, Ron Paul may be able to achieve exponential growth.
Furthermore, as Ron Paul begins to spend, it may have a sudden and dramatic impact on his rankings in the polls. His biggest weakness is his anonymity: a whopping 75% of New Hampshire Republicans have no clue who he is. Howard Dean was already known by 97% of New Hampshire residents by this point. Mainstream advertising will also have a positive psychological effect on those already aware of Ron Paul but doubting his viability.
This quarter is pivotal. Converting incoming funds to advertising that reaches these vast unwashed masses must come at a fast clip if Ron Paul hopes to catch up to Dean. Dean will raise $14 million and begin polling like a front-runner (29%) in four months. Where will Ron Paul be?
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Thank you very much for the information.
It behooves us Ron Paul supporters to work harder in this next month to ensure that when Iowa and New Hampshire straw polls occur, our candidate is in the number 1 or 2 position.
One element the isn’t discussed is that when Dean ran in 2004, he was competing only against a few formidable democrats at that time. Kerry and Edwards, and only Bush on the other side.
In 2008 we have a major free for all on our hands.
Gephardt, Leiberman and Clark folded early.
Dean also didn’t have the same problem of being ignored by the MSM that Rep. Paul has had to face.
But we do have some light shining on this campaign outside of some of the difficulties.
Senator McCain is dead for all intents and purposes. Fred Thompson is taking so long to come into the race that he may miss the boat completely for Aimes or New Hampshire plus his previous alliance with a pro-abortion group may hit him hard now in the polls. Thompson has a similar problem to Giuliani in that this is his third marriage.
Giuliani while still ahead in the polls has far to many skeletons in his particular closet to maintain that lead for long. The IAFF video sure isn’t going to help his campaign.
Romney is the only one that doesn’t have money or skeleton problems but he does seem to be unable to get donations from middle America.
He is not only 9 million in the hole from his own pocket book, it makes him look like he, not the American people truly want him in office.
Another nice benefit is that Dr. Paul has far more Supporters at this point than Dean had Deaniacs.
Thanks again for the summation.
Texas Little El, I thank you for your comments and appreciation.
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Well written, thank for that info.
This was a well written article - the author should be proud!
the one annoying difference is when Howard Dean took over the internet it carried over into “old media”. Ron Paul isn’t getting that same treatment. Old media can’t seem to discuss Dr. Paul without adding longshot or fringe to his title. That kind of propoganda is hard to battle.